Information about the Deep Thunder Forecasts for New York
"Nested" forecasts at 16, 4 and 1 km resolution (areas
of 976x976, 244x244 and 61x61 km in size, respectively) are generated centered
over New York City tied to multi-resolution visualizations, which are presented
here. The idea is to illustrate how the forecasts can be tailored
to the geographic region of interest enabling one to "zoom in" on New York.
Each forecast is generated on an IBM
RS/6000* Scalable Power Parallel (SP*), which is a distributed
memory MIMD parallel computer consisting of two to 512 RS/6000 processor
nodes, that communicate via a multi-stage interconnect (the SP Switch).
Each node has an SMP configuration of two to 16 processors. In this
case, seven nodes of four 375 MHz Power3 processors are used for computing
and a single cpu of a similar node is used for I/O to prepare a single,
multi-resolution 24-hour forecast typically in under two hours. The modelling code
that is used to compute these forecasts has been customized by IBM Research,
which fully exploits the parallel processing power of the SP, and has a
number of other enhancements, including visualization.
In this current implementation, the data for both boundary
and initial conditions for each model execution are derived from NCEP's
Eta synoptic scale
model, using isentropic analysis. This will be supplemented in the future with
data assimilation of current observations to generate higher quality initial
conditions.
The data from the Eta model, which covers all of North America and surrounding oceans at
12 km resolution, is sampled to 40 km resolution every three hours for each forecast run prior
to dissemination.
These data are available courtesy of the National
Weather Service via their NOAAport
data transmission system. The NOAAport system used for this project
was developed by Planetary Data,
Inc.
Additional material is available for you to learn more about this system. Some
information is below as well as via the links to the left.
You can download a
presentation handout, read a paper that describes the system, learn how well Deep
Thunder predicted snow during the 2002-2003 winter season,
look at some of the forecasts that Deep Thunder produced when Hurricane Isabel
came through the New York area in September 2003,
see Deep Thunder's predictions for the severe weather that led to two F1 tornadoes in
New Jersey on September 23, 2003.
There are two papers that discuss on-going efforts to evaluate and verify the forecasts that are also available for you to
read. The first paper focuses on specific events and long-term performance.
Another paper, that describes the performance for snowstorm forecasts during the 2002-2003 winter.
This web site provides visual representations of these
forecasts on an experimental basis. These visualization are provided
as-is with no guarantee as to their quality or reliability. The underlying
forecasts and the visualizations will continue to evolve in an effort to
refine both the technology and the science as well as to understand their
potential value.
Description
Each image in the table above shows a topographic map of the different
nests (areas at different resolutions) composing this forecast. As
you go to higher resolution, you will see greater detail for the New York
City area.
Instructions
By clicking and dragging your mouse inside each image you can interact
with the visualization in a three-dimensional sense. Below each image
you can select an flyover animation of the area. Depending on the
available bandwidth, that download may take some time. If you are
having problems viewing or interacting with these images, make sure your
browser has Java and Javascript enabled.
More Visualizations of
the Current Forecast
Recent High-Resolution Local Satellite
Observations
Learn
More about Deep Thunder
Learn
More about how Deep Thunder Visualizes the Data Generated by the
Weather Model
Current Weather
Information and Predictions for New York City (from the National Weather
Service)
Current Model Results from the National
Weather Service
Recent High-Resolution Local Radar Observations
Evaluation of Recent Forecasts
