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  Deep Thunder

Current Deep Thunder Forecast for the IBM T. J. Watson Research Center

Products for IBM Facility Management


Click on any of the four images below to see and/or interact with these model forecast products.  All of them show forecasted information in Westchester County.  The first focuses on temperature, the second focuses on precipitation and the third shows winds, while the fourth illustrates clouds and surface conditions at the Watson Research site via a set of 8-panel plots.  
 




There a number of forecasted weather variables shown in the eight panels as determined from the model for the Watson Research Center, as a function of time for the forecast period.  Six of the plots each show two variables while the other two plots each show one.  The top left plot presents temperature (blue) and pressure (red).   If the temperature range includes the freezing point of water, the plot will be marked with a horizontal black line at 32 degrees Fahrenheit.   The left panel in the second row shows humidity (blue) and precipitation (red).  Since the precipitation is accumulated through the model run, the slope of the curve will be indicative of the predicted rate of precipitation.  Therefore, when the slope is zero, it is not raining (or snowing).  In addition, the model calculations require some time to "spin-up" the microphysics to enable precipitation.  Therefore, there will typically be no precipitation in the first couple of hours of model results.

The top right plot illustrates forecasted winds -- speed (blue) and direction (red).  The wind direction is shown via the arrows that are attached to the wind speed plot.  The arrows indicate the predicted (compass) direction to which the wind is going.  The right plot in the second row is a colored contour map of forecasted total (water and ice) cloud water density as a function of elevation and time.  This "cross-sectional" slice can provide information related to storms, fog, visibility, etc. predicted at this location.  Portions of the plot in white imply time or elevations where there are little or no clouds.  Areas in yellow, orange and red imply when and where the relatively densest clouds are forecasted, following the color legend on the top of the panel.

The third row shows other ways to examine moisture and temperature.   On the left are plots of wet bulb temperature (blue) and dew point temperature (red).   On the right are two representations of apparent temperature, heat index (blue) and wind chill (red).   The former is used primarily in the summer and represents the impact of humidity on apparent temperature.   Wind chill represents the influence of wind on the skin as an apparent temperature, commonly used during the winter.  

The fourth row shows provides additional information about precipitation.   On the left are estimates of snow totals based upon two different algorithms of deriving snow from the liquid precipitation that the model calculates.   The "dry" algorithm (blue) assumes the snow is very light and fluffy, and utilizes information about just the amount of liquid and the temperature.   The "wet" algorithm (red) is much more conservative, assuming the snow is quite compact and wet.   In both cases, as with the liquid precipitation plot above, the amounts are integrated through the model run.   On the right are liquid (rain equivalent blue) and snow accumulation (red) on an hourly basis.   These plots essentially provide an estimate for the rate of precipitation.  

Click on the plot to display a full-size version.



You can learn more about this technology, relevant data and weather forecasting, at the following sites:

More Visualizations of the Current Forecast
 

Learn More about These Forecasts
 

Recent High-Resolution Local Satellite Observations
 

Learn More about Deep Thunder
 

Learn More about how Deep Thunder Visualizes the Data Generated by the Weather Model
 

Current Weather Information and Predictions for New York City (from the National Weather Service)
 

Current Model Results from the National Weather Service
 

Recent High-Resolution Local Radar Observations
 

Evaluation of Recent Forecasts


lloydt@watson.ibm.com



  
 
  

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