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  Deep Thunder Forecast for New York

Current Deep Thunder Forecast for New York Atmospheric Stability at 1 km between Data Points (K Index, Lifted Index and Vertical Winds)






Description

This animation is a visualization of the Deep Thunder forecast for the intermediate-resolution nest at 4 km resolution focused on New York City.  Each time step corresponds to one hour of forecast time.  The specific data shown are for potential use for aviation applications.  In particular, the data may be useful in indicating the potential for severe weather due to convection.  A colored surface is shown, where the color corresponds to K Index, which is a measure of conective potential based on the vertical lapse rate along with the amount and vertical extent of low-level moisture in the atmosphere.  The surface is deformed linearly by Lifted Index, which relates to the potential instability from the surface to 500 mb.  Significant deformation from a plane would imply regions of potential instability.  The following table summarizes a relation between lifted and K Index.  But there is variation with season and location.
 
Lifted Index
(Instability increases with greater negative values)
K Index
(Instability increases with greater positive values)
Probable Weather Operational Impact
Negative (unstable) -- Low High (wet) -- Pink Showers or thunderstorms Turbulence, may be hazardous
Negative (unstable) -- Low Low (dry) -- Cyan Some cumulus activity; light precipitation Bumpy with thermals
Positive (stable) -- High High (wet) -- Pink Stratus clouds; steady precipitation Poor visibility; light winds
Positive (stable) -- High Low (dry) -- Cyan Predominately fair Smooth air; light winds

The surface is overlaid with a set of contour lines of forecasted vertical wind speed.  Significant updrafts (green to yellow contours) in blue "valleys" on the surface would imply regions of significant potential forsevere convective activity.

The surface is also overlaid with with maps of coastlines and state boundaries in black and rivers in blue.


Instructions

An animation as a set of individual JPEG images is shown above with one hour of forecast time between each frame.  Depending on your connection speed and that of your computer, the animation may take a few minutes to load and decompress in your browser.  When it is completed, the animation will play.  There are VCR-like controls under the animation to enable you to stop playback, play forward or backward, or step through the frames one at a time, control the speed of playback, etc.  If you are having problems viewing or interacting with this animation, make sure your browser has Javascript enabled.

If the forecast information presented on this page does not seem to be current and you have visited this site recently, the results of the previous visit may have been saved in your web browser's cache. If so, you should change your cache settings (e.g., File->Preferences->Advanced->Cache in Netscape and set the document comparison to "Every time"). When you restart your browser, the problem should be solved. For your current session, you should manually clear the cache and reload the page.
 


More Visualizations of the Current Forecast
 

Learn More about These Forecasts
 

Recent High-Resolution Local Satellite Observations
 

Learn More about Deep Thunder
 

Learn More about how Deep Thunder Visualizes the Data Generated by the Weather Model
 

Current Weather Information and Predictions for New York City (from the National Weather Service)
 

Current Model Results from the National Weather Service
 

Recent High-Resolution Local Radar Observations
 

Evaluation of Recent Forecasts

  
 
  

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